2024 State of the Restaurant Industry  (2024)

FAQs

What is the future of restaurants in 2024? ›

In 2024, restaurants will focus on elevating their online sites and apps, rebooting their loyalty efforts, growing in-house delivery programs, optimizing their digital presence and implementing more measures to meet rising expectations for a personalized experience.

The restaurant and foodservice industry will continue to grow in 2024. Sales are forecast to top $1 trillion for the first time in history, and the nation's second-largest private sector employer is on track to add 200,000 jobs, pushing total employment to 15.7 million people.

It was not to be as the restaurant industry essentially shut down in March 2020 and industry-wide sales were closer to $659 billion by the end of the year. A global pandemic and a lengthy period of inflation later, the NRA is estimating US restaurant sales will reach $1.1 trillion in 2024.

Slow traffic, growing interest in afternoon snacking and trends toward value menus, digital and in-store personalization will shape the restaurant landscape. As the restaurant industry settles into 2024, operators are deploying new strategies to overcome persistent business challenges.

It's the Year of Mash-Ups

Most of our experts (62%) selected creative mash-ups of popular foods and flavors as an emerging trend that will continue to grow this year. At The Kitchn, we're no strangers to combining two classics into one beloved recipe, like French onion soup chicken and pizza mac and cheese.

Slowing sales

Average sales among publicly traded restaurants by quarter. Industry sales slowed considerably by the second half of 2023. Thirteen of the 21 casual-dining chains that are part of publicly traded companies reported same-store sales of 1% or less and 11 of them reported absolute declines.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Program (WFP) identified 18 “hunger hotspots” to watch carefully in 2024. Their hunger hotspots include 22 countries where FAO and WFP see political and armed strife disrupting farming. That could lead to millions facing hunger.

Foodservice 2025 is intended to assist leaders in foodservice organizations begin the debate on the future; form their view of the world to come; and, begin to confidently take steps to prepare for success.

NRF described consumers as resilient. National Retail Federation today forecast that retail sales will increase in 2024 between 2.5% and 3.5% to between $5.23 trillion and $5.28 trillion. And that massive figure doesn't even include cars, gas and restaurants.

Why are so many people leaving the restaurant industry? ›

Low wages

The biggest reason restaurant workers give for unionizing, changing jobs, or leaving the industry entirely invariably comes back to pay. An opinion piece published in the New York Times highlights the fact that the national subminimum hourly wage for tipped workers has been $2.13 for more than three decades.

A 2023 survey by Toast found the No. 1 reason for staff turnover in restaurants was bad managers, followed by low pay, work schedules, bad culture, and lack of growth opportunities. With these entrenched issues in mind, some have begun to innovate their business to attract talent and turn things around.

Washington, D.C. – Restaurants sales are forecast to exceed $1.1 trillion in sales this year, marking a new milestone for the industry that will employ over 15.7 million people in the United States by the end of 2024.

Restaurant sales will hit an all-time high of $1.1 trillion in the U.S. this year, though profitability will continue to be eroded by soaring food and labor costs, according to a just-released forecast from the National Restaurant Association.

The potential of digital transformation

The level of digitalization in the restaurant industry has already developed rapidly in the past. From simple online or app reservations to digital menus and ghost kitchens, the restaurant industry of the future will be driven more than ever by digital innovation.

The ordering process in restaurants will also be digital in the future. Many establishments already allow customers to order directly from their smartphones. Either via a mobile app or via the restaurant's website on the internet. The orders are then sent directly to the kitchen and can be processed more quickly.

The restaurant and foodservice industry is projected to add 200,000 jobs in 2024, bringing total industry employment to 15.7 million. Between 2024 and 2032, the industry is projected to add 150,000 jobs per year on average, with total staffing levels reaching 16.9 million by 2032.

KEY MARKET INSIGHTS

The global fast food market size was USD 862.05 billion in 2020 and is projected to grow from USD 972.74 billion in 2021 to USD 1,467.04 billion by 2028 at a CAGR of 6.05% during the 2021-2028 period. Europe dominated the global market with a share of 38.94% in 2020.

Plant-Based Foods

Coincidentally, or not-so-coincidentally, Whole Foods ninth annual trend report reveals that plant-based food will continue to be a significant trend in 2024, with a return to fundamental non-processed ingredients.